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Τεκμήριο Crude oil: trade, determinants of world demand and future prospects(12/07/2021) Stratakis, Dimitris; Vlachou, Stamatoula-Marina; Στρατάκης, Δημήτριος; Βλάχου, Σταματούλα-Μαρίνα; Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of Accounting and Finance; Androutsopoulos, Konstantinos; Rompolis, Leonidas; Kavousanos, Emmanuel G.Crude oil constitutes one of the most important commodities traded internationally andpossesses crucial role in the formulation of global economic activity. Hence, measuringcrude oil demand and identifying its determinant factors is of vital importance and hasattracted the attention of many researchers. The current thesis summarizes the attempt tomeasure and interpret the demand for crude oil. Based on quarterly data that spans from2003Q2– 2021Q2 we examine the relationship between demand for crude oil and globaleconomic indicators along with the influence of world population. The set of variablesregarding global economic indicators includes the Kilian index, GDP, industrial productionof OECD countries and world population. COVID-19 effects are also investigated throughthe use of a dummy variable. The power of our proposed model is tested through timeseries regression analysis. The major findings of our analysis suggest that demand for crudeoil seem to respond to changes of GDP of the 20 most developed countries and worldpopulation. Empirical results also indicate that the random shock of COVID-19 constitutesa significant influential factor of crude oil demand. Furthermore, we investigate the effectof recent measures regarding the decarbonization and the implications that crude oil marketfaces in the future. From a forward-looking perspective, global economic indicators seemto explain potential changes in oil demand and random shocks, such as the recentpandemic, have serious impact on the trade. All decisions regarding a long-term investmentin the tanker market should be done in accordance with the future strict regulation of lowemissions.